Will the Monthlies’ Poor First Half Mean a Cold, Lonely Summer?

05/19/2014

The April, May and June differentials were consistently bad with factors including the continued shift in spending to digital and the unseasonably cold weather, which kept consumers out of stores in much of the U.S. These are bad signs ahead of fashion, beauty and retail’s critical September "fall preview," and any summer warmth (not just meteorological) is welcome. Here is the three-year quarterly timeline:

2011 2012 2013 2014
2nd qtr. 3rd qtr. 4th qtr. 1st qtr 2nd qtr. 3rd qtr. 4th qtr. 1st qtr. 2nd qtr. 3rd qtr. 4th qtr. 1st qtr. 2nd qtr.
+1.69% -4.97% -6.76% -6.06% -6.03% -2.80% -2.38% -0.12% -0.86% -0.88% +0.59% -4.82% -6.15%
Publication June 2014 June 2013 % Change 2014 pages 2013 pages % Change
ALL YOU 59.42 61.58 -3.51 289.58 314.26 -7.85
ALLURE 86.80 102.77 -15.54 630.26 690.16 -8.68
AMERICAN BABY 26.05 28.04 -7.10 133.49 169.13 -21.07
AMERICAN PHOTO (May/June) 16.99 25.33 -32.93 64.05 78.36 -18.26
ARCHITECTURAL DIGEST 85.50 94.17 -9.21 505.70 484.96 4.28
ATHLON SPORTS MONTHLY 6.00 2.57 133.46 41.15 25.86 59.13
ATLANTIC, THE (June/July) 31.83 32.17 -1.06 173.98 167.63 3.79
AUTOMOBILE 45.16 51.00 -11.45 231.60 242.15 -4.36
BACKPACKER 32.00 38.00 -15.79 177.50 197.00 -9.90
BETTER HOMES AND GARDENS 110.10 104.99 4.87 522.81 586.07 -10.79
BICYCLING 71.47 55.47 28.84 274.72 237.71 15.57
BLACK ENTERPRISE (BE 100s) 33.53 45.17 -25.77 112.74 147.92 -23.78
BLOOMBERG MARKETS 51.16 40.39 26.67 ——————————————–
" " PURSUITS 40.33 25.00 61.32 369.87 337.68 9.53
BOATING 54.98 46.96 17.08 307.91 314.14 -1.98
BON APPÉTIT 59.33 68.98 -13.99 311.58 346.17 -9.99
BOYS’ LIFE 3.05 8.69 -64.90 22.46 39.35 -42.92
BRIDES (June/July) 238.46 229.71 3.81 940.56 931.74 0.95
CAR AND DRIVER 66.56 67.33 -1.14 333.04 301.48 10.47
CAR CRAFT 44.16 45.60 -3.16 194.53 166.62 16.75
CHICAGO 88.89 90.74 -2.04 517.73 510.80 1.36
CIRCLE TRACK 33.08 48.32 -31.54 229.56 247.26 -7.16
COASTAL LIVING 49.00 46.72 4.88 238.61 236.88 0.73
COMPETITOR 52.09 49.94 4.31 216.45 251.47 -13.93
CONDÉ NAST TRAVELER 62.98 58.24 8.14 456.60 428.87 6.47
COOKING LIGHT 80.20 83.03 -3.41 421.29 433.52 -2.82
COSMOPOLITAN/w for Latinas 133.70 126.71 5.52 666.39 695.70 -4.21
COUNTRY LIVING 49.43 51.53 -4.08 201.59 268.29 -24.86
CRUSING WORLD 75.29 69.29 8.66 390.25 361.03 8.09
CYCLE WORLD 47.14 52.82 -10.75 196.24 256.54 -23.51
DASH 11.73 13.80 -15.00 64.09 70.50 -9.09
DETAILS 77.10 73.50 4.90 335.37 349.49 -4.04
DISCOVER 16.12 13.46 19.76 85.19 75.43 12.94
DWELL 83.83 74.67 12.27 332.17 294.35 12.85
EATING WELL (May/June) 41.52 44.38 -6.44 130.72 132.19 -1.11
EBONY 44.67 58.66 -23.85 290.66 315.41 -7.85
ELLE 124.67 139.86 -10.86 1083.43 1,156.98 -6.36
ELLE DECOR 126.24 125.95 0.23 571.71 523.44 9.22
Publication June 2014 June 2013 % Change 2014 pages 2013 pages % Change
ENTREPRENEUR 80.42 76.12 5.65 463.58 415.49 11.57
ESQUIRE (June/July) 69.19 97.62 -29.12 364.15 438.64 -16.98
ESSENCE 63.78 72.98 -12.61 401.14 392.12 2.30
EVERY DAY w/RACHAEL RAY 49.89 61.69 -19.13 264.00 298.97 -11.70
FAMILY CIRCLE 87.65 103.62 -15.41 414.71 540.32 -23.25
FAMILY FUN (June/July) 55.64 68.12 -18.32 228.49 269.13 -15.10
FAMILY HANDYMAN, THE 65.16 51.19 27.29 263.70 272.28 -3.15
FAST COMPANY 54.40 72.04 -24.49 270.82 288.29 -6.06
FIELD & STREAM 43.22 41.97 2.98 180.43 205.76 -12.31
FIRST FOR WOMEN (May 12) 22.99 22.33 2.96 ————————————–
" " " (June 2) 19.93 37.70 -47.14 169.20 196.48 -13.88
FIT PREGNANCY (June/July) 57.65 64.59 -10.74 186.59 189.60 -1.59
FITNESS 68.02 75.29 -9.66 393.27 422.52 -6.92
FLEX 107.00 190.32 -43.78 864.60 1,192.64 -27.51
FLYING 33.75 39.67 -14.92 210.07 227.08 -7.49
FOOD & WINE 64.78 65.07 -0.45 374.11 379.11 -1.32
FOOD NETWORK MAGAZINE 71.23 118.88 -40.08 402.82 467.87 -13.90
FOUR WHEELER 45.59 57.50 -20.71 240.65 266.71 -9.77
4-WHEEL/OFF-ROAD 49.25 55.24 -10.84 248.60 244.33 1.75
GENTLEMEN’S QUARTERLY 84.76 87.11 -2.70 499.46 528.89 -5.56
GLAMOUR 82.84 99.42 -16.68 692.55 664.99 4.14
GOLF DIGEST 105.59 101.68 3.85 419.33 447.38 -6.27
GOLF MAGAZINE 74.54 93.92 -20.63 445.78 480.86 -7.30
GOOD HOUSEKEEPING 75.06 83.97 -10.61 487.99 558.64 -12.65
GUIDEPOSTS 22.50 40.00 -43.75 139.00 212.50 -34.59
HARPER’S BAZAAR (June/July) 109.66 120.49 -8.99 941.73 902.34 4.37
HARPER’S MAGAZINE 18.50 22.50 -17.78 120.82 128.15 -5.72
HEALTH 67.16 54.65 22.89 372.15 317.68 17.15
HGTV 73.97 92.52 -20.05 339.51 325.40 4.34
HOT ROD 59.34 64.85 -8.50 309.05 293.60 5.26
HOUSE BEAUTIFUL 50.63 55.84 -9.33 287.18 287.31 -0.05
INC. 94.33 79.70 18.36 315.39 285.68 10.40
IN STYLE 150.68 158.88 -5.16 1186.36 1,260.62 -5.89
KIPLINGER’S PERSONAL FINANCE 21.82 21.65 0.79 132.51 124.08 6.79
LADIES’ HOME JOURNAL 36.21 66.91 -45.88 217.23 303.09 -28.33
LATINA (June/July) 56.04 62.61 -10.49 298.43 339.10 -11.99
LUCKY (June/July) 67.79 68.61 -1.20 356.90 382.15 y -6.61
MARIE CLAIRE 87.10 105.70 -17.60 738.57 757.01 -2.44
Publication June 2014 June 2013 % Change 2014 pages 2013 pages % Change
MARTHA STEWART LIVING 56.04 81.04 -30.85 298.58 406.52 y -26.55
" " WEDDINGS/REAL WEDDINGS (no issues) 649.09 717.82 -9.57
MAXIM 25.96 39.25 -33.86 105.88 156.05 -32.15
MEN’S FITNESS 73.04 83.50 -12.53 355.44 416.30 y -14.62
MEN’S HEALTH 83.52 96.94 -13.84 354.01 404.56 -12.50
MEN’S JOURNAL 79.41 100.59 -21.06 347.83 x 367.02 -5.23
MONEY 37.23 35.20 5.77 203.48 203.80 -0.16
MORE 46.10 48.48 -4.91 283.88 335.80 -15.46
MOTOR TREND 68.98 79.28 -12.99 317.00 374.71 -15.40
MUSCLE & FITNESS 60.00 106.94 -43.89 573.90 650.10 -11.72
" " " HERS (May/June) 42.57 58.40 -27.11 149.84 162.20 -7.62
NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC 25.04 39.03 -35.84 135.87 145.58 -6.67
NATURAL HEALTH (May/June) 41.66 43.06 -3.25 120.32 128.55 -6.40
NG KIDS (June/July) 7.00 12.27 -42.95 33.68 28.75 17.15
NG TRAVELER (May/June) 54.84 52.44 4.58 134.58 133.57 0.76
O (OPRAH MAGAZINE) 75.69 87.48 -13.48 404.43 479.45 -15.65
ORGANIC GARDENING (June/July) 36.13 32.97 9.58 109.36 123.30 -11.31
OUTDOOR LIFE 34.73 36.65 -5.24 145.35 151.40 -4.00
OUTSIDE 57.83 56.89 1.65 323.67 319.67 1.25
" (Summer Buyer’s Guide)R 33.89 42.75 -20.73 ——————————————–
PARENTS 95.08 110.19 -13.71 466.74 540.57 -13.66
PEOPLE EN ESPAÑOL 73.27 107.89 -32.09 372.35 465.98 -20.09
PLAYBOY 36.59 42.57 -14.05 235.28 199.92 17.69
POPULAR MECHANICS 58.52 68.30 -14.32 219.33 287.95 y -23.83
POPULAR PHOTOGRAPHY 46.15 61.99 -25.55 276.52 308.40 -10.34
POPULAR SCIENCE 37.48 56.35 -33.49 236.11 234.28 0.78
POWER & MOTOR YACHT 89.40 81.23 10.06 642.44 576.29 11.48
PREVENTION 40.63 56.00 -27.45 302.80 352.31 -14.05
READER’S DIGEST 35.76 57.56 -37.87 235.84 404.06 -41.63
REAL SIMPLE 105.31 107.63 -2.16 602.85 619.44 -2.68
REDBOOK 85.08 88.90 -4.30 434.09 505.52 -14.13
RELISH 12.00 9.75 23.08 59.23 63.2 -6.28
ROAD & TRACK 63.50 49.34 28.70 202.33 231.73 -12.69
ROBB REPORT 175.42 188.00 -6.69 596.75 566.18 5.40
ROD & CUSTOM 32.17 33.00 -2.52 206.50 190.73 8.27
RUNNER’S WORLD 44.83 63.50 -29.40 299.56 321.96 -6.96
SAIL 58.05 61.50 -5.61 318.46 339.50 -6.20
SALTWATER SPORTSMAN 55.50 40.48 37.10 232.08 236.42 -1.84
SAVEUR 34.83 51.00 -31.71 157.43 175.80 -10.45
SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN 22.00 19.00 15.79 86.77 87.67 -1.03
SCOUTING (May/June) 14.12 14.64 -3.55 43.67 51.27 -14.82
SELF 66.16 84.51 -21.71 329.59 420.77 -21.67
SEVENTEEN (June/July) 50.68 62.20 -18.52 357.00 353.79 0.91
Publication June 2014 June 2013 % Change 2014 pages 2013 pages % Change
SHAPE 100.34 95.36 5.22 509.48 474.16 7.45
SPORTS ILLUSTRATED KIDS 10.13 11.46 -11.61 46.97 41.50 13.18
SKI (no issue) 59.16 47.68 24.08
SMITHSONIAN 41.93 40.78 2.82 217.70 212.51 2.44
SOUTHERN LIVING 79.49 77.16 3.02 446.26 434.49 2.71
SPECTRUM, IEEE 59.33 20.00 196.65 200.08 R 189.08 5.82
SPRY LIVING 9.20 8.80 4.55 56.64 54.58 3.77
STYLEWATCH (PEOPLE) 79.09 110.07 -28.15 501.44 607.23 -17.42
SUCCESSFUL FARMING (May/June) 41.28 47.56 -13.20 346.39 355.12 -2.46
SUNSET 66.16 67.60 -2.13 268.78 283.93 -5.34
TASTE OF HOME (June/July) 40.33 26.83 50.32 99.66 92.67 7.54
TEEN VOGUE (June/July) 46.14 46.26 -0.26 339.86 376.10 -9.64
TENNIS (May/June) 31.50 35.10 -10.26 101.32 109.47 -7.44
TEXAS MONTHLY 169.72 186.16 -8.83 809.52 801.51 1.00
THIS OLD HOUSE 44.32 51.06 -13.20 206.08 218.00 -5.47
TOWN & COUNTRY (Jun/July) 83.23 76.33 9.04 546.82 440.12 24.24
TRADITIONAL HOME 48.06 43.95 9.35 237.98 248.79 -4.35
TRAVEL + LEISURE 86.13 102.80 -16.22 488.09 460.12 6.08
TRIATHLETE 68.50 63.40 8.04 288.72 287.10 0.56
UNITED HEMISPHERES 46.36 43.76 5.94 288.72 273.03 5.75
VANITY FAIR 70.22 66.81 5.10 638.58 647.12 -1.32
VEGETARIAN TIMES (April/May) 28.49 30.81 -7.53 149.09 145.26 2.64
VELONEWS 50.60 44.60 13.45 211.20 209.40 0.86
VERANDA (May/June) 107.23 105.17 1.96 283.08 264.50 7.02
VOGUE 118.03 111.69 5.68 1115.53 1,180.60 -5.51
W (June/July) 58.07 52.48 10.65 509.70 548.01 -6.99
WIRED 44.83 88.05 -49.09 298.40 375.31 -20.49
WOMAN’S DAY 49.26 94.32 -47.77 410.07 533.26 -23.10
WOMEN’S HEALTH 79.32 79.40 -0.10 398.59 385.46 3.41
WORKING MOTHER (June/July) 38.00 47.63 -20.22 122.17 150.53 -18.84
WSJ. (May 31) 38.00 36.52 4.05 274.05 x 251.89 8.80
YACHTING 71.83 76.00 -5.49 503.50 506.08 -0.51
YOGA JOURNAL 40.10 43.02 -6.79 230.23 258.04 -10.78
Totals 9026.03 9928.12 -9.09 49,470.22 52,394.89 -5.58

x = One more 2014 issue; y = One more 2013 issue; E = Estimate; D = Double issue