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BREAKING NEWS & VIEWS
iPad to Be Bigger than iPhone? Nibble on Kindle?  are a fair number of those wishful thinkers, too. According to market research ChangeWave, an early February survey of 3,171 consumers showed that 4% of respondents were “very likely” to buy the device, while another 9% were “somewhat likely” to pay the $500 or more for the table gadget. While those numbers may appear small in terms of market penetration, consider two things. First, pre-launch intentions to buy the iPad outpace the pre-launch intent around the original iPhone before its launch in 2007. At that time, ChangeWave saw only 3% of users “very likely” to buy an iPhone at the device’s release and 6% “somewhat likely” to purchase. Of course some of that gap between initial iPad and iPhone excitement may have more to do with the difference in devices. The iPhone purchase constituted a change of mobile carrier for many people and a longer term financial commitment than the iPad, which initially will not include 3G coverage and network charges. Also, 4% initial intent is not a small number when extrapolated across the entire U.S. market. As with the iPhone, that early buyer intent could translate into a larger market share as time goes on. ChangeWave feels that the 4% of strong iPad intenders is especially significant, because it is the same level of interest that a survey showed prior to the device’s formal announcement. The “somewhat likely” number did decline, however, from a pre-announcement level of 14%. In other words, excitement remained high even as details of the hardware and business models emerged. Consider also that 4% of the adult U.S. population amounts to multiples more than the current estimated Kindle sales of something under 2 million  units. But ChangeWave’s survey also suggests that Amazon may finally have some real competition in the e-reader space. Twenty-seven percent of current e-reader owners said they would have opted for an iPad had it been available when they bought their device. Only 45% would have stuck with their original choice. And among those planning to buy an e-reader, only 28% now say they will buy a Kindle, compared to 40% who like the iPad instead. Both Barnes & Noble’s Nook and Sony’s e-Reader fall far behind. The news for print publishers is not so good either. No, people do not seem to be dying for a portable digital magazine reader. Most respondents (68%) named surfing the Internet as their top planned use for the iPad, while reading magazines or newspapers trailed significantly (28%) both checking e-mail and reading e-books. One of the questions some critics of the iPad have raised is that the planned next generation of digital magazines for the platform could well compete with a magazine’s own Web site. The iPad TV ad campaign launched last evening at the ABC Oscars show. Pre-ordering will start this week. If you have breaking news to share please contact Steve Smith at ssmith@accessintel.com COMMENTS
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