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BREAKING NEWS & VIEWS
Consumer Mags to Decline at 2.8% Rate Through 2013 Magazines did not come into the recession from a position of strength, with CAGR at a meager 1.1% from 2003 to 2008. Virtually all of the main revenue drivers for this industry are being depressed by a shifting media economy and digitization, such that magazine advertising will decline 15.6% in 2009 to $10.53 billion and a CAGR of -6.6% for the 2008-2013 period. This will leave the ad spend on magazines at $8.87 billion in 2013, the lowest level since 1995. VSS analysts argue that magazines will continue to fare poorly against other media until they provide media buyers with more accurate metrics of their effectiveness and shorter lead times that will synchronize better for cross-media planning. While VSS generally sees a shift from ad-supported to consumer-supported media through direct payments, magazine circulation is not among the benefactors. The report expects spending on circulation to drop 3.2% in 2009 to $9.51 billion, reflecting cut-rate subscription prices and falling newsstand purchasing. Circulation spending should stabilize as the economy improves, and VSS projects a CAGR of -0.3%. Custom publishing in the consumer segment is projected to decline by 29.3% this year to $1.20 billion and decline at a CAGR of 6.8% in the 2008-2013 period, reaching $1.19 billion in 2013. The bright spot for magazines—but perhaps not bright enough—remains e-media and mobile, where VSS expects a 6.5% rise in spending in 2009 to $650 million. Ad spending will drive growth at a 17.7% CAGR in the period. Nevertheless, the gains in e-media will not offset losses in ad and circulation revenue. In all, VSS sees the magazine economy trailing the overall economy by 3% to 8% through 2013. In 2010, the industry will dip below the $20 billion mark for the first time since 1997 and hit $19.64 billion in overall revenue. VSS is the parent company of Access Intelligence, publisher of min and minonline. If you have breaking news to share please contact Steve Smith at ssmith@accessintel.com |
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