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BREAKING NEWS & VIEWS
Prediction: eReaders to Grow and Fragment in 2010Wednesday, December 2, 2009 The market for eReader devices will expand far beyond the Kindle in 2010 and fragment across many devices, say Forrester analysts in their predictions for the next year. The sales of eBook content will soar to $500  million next year, say Forrester analysts Sarah Rotman Epps and James L. McQuivey, and Barnes & Noble is poised to take some market share from Amazon and Sony in the device and content sales space. With the anticipated launch of the nook reader and an eBookstore in place, BN should start chipping away at competitors effectively, Forrester expects.Meanwhile, apart from the eBooks space, magazine and newspaper publishers will seriously explore alternative devices and models. “Magazine and newspaper publishers aren't satisfied with the way their content looks and acts on the Kindle and Sony Readers--they want color, video, interactivity, the ability to sell ads and control the subscriber relationship,” they say in their blog post. “Old media moves slowly, but in 2010 we'll see them crawling towards some solutions.” The content partners are hoping to get more leverage with Amazon and Apple by joining together. Publishers also will need to focus on getting their content onto a range of devices, not just the new ones supported by the upcoming consortium. Forrester says we will see content pour onto mobile phones as well as new Netbooks and phones that combine traditional LCD screens with e-ink technologies. Downloadable apps also will make book, newspaper and magazine content more usable on a wider range of devices, from smart phones to game handhelds like the Sony PSP and Nintendo DS. Epps and McQuivey see a hotbed of activity in this space in 2010 and many challengers to the Amazon Kindle, but the analysts do not expect Amazon to stand still for it. They predict the book seller will launch a new line of touch screen eReaders in 2010 with some form of color device by year’s end. Our take on the burgeoning device and eBook market is a bit different and more consumer-centric. While there is bound to be a great deal of jockeying for position and technological experimentation next year, all of these technologies are coming into a recession-challenged market. More to the point, the explosion of devices could cause more consumer confusion than clarity, especially considering that most consumers will recognize that the underlying technologies are rudimentary. Publishers should not expect consumers to embrace these platforms very quickly, if at all, as consumers watch their budgets carefully. Meanwhile, the media companies seem intent on fragmenting and complicating a market that is already tiny. If you have breaking news to share please contact Steve Smith at ssmith@accessintel.com
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