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BREAKING NEWS & VIEWS
Online Ad Decline Slows, Finds BottomMonday, December 14, 2009 Research firm eMarketer has called a bottom to the online ad market decline of 2009. “While spending in the first three quarters of 2009 fell 5.3%, according to the Interactive Advertising Bureau and PricewaterhouseCoopers, eMarketer's estimates indicate a smaller loss during Q4 of 2.5%,” says senior analyst Dave Hallerman in a new report from the company. Hallerman is expecting full-year decline of 4.6% for online spending by the end of 2009, but a rebound in early 2010 will lead to a bounce back of 5.5% next year. Echoing the expectations of Forrester analysts for accelerated growth in the next few years in interactive media, Hallerman and eMarketer are pegging 2011 growth at 6.8% and then 2012 increases at 12.3%. By 2014, Hallerman predicts digital media spend at $34 billion, up from $22.4 billion this year.  Even with the expected rebound, growth will be uneven across the many platforms that comprise interactive media. Search marketing, which continued to increase its revenue throughout this recession, will just keep expanding and lead much of the growth. The mainstay for magazine brands online, banners, however, will show modest growth, from about $4.7 billion this year to $5.8 billion in 2014. On the b2b side, lead generation will receive $1.5 billion in 2009 and grow to $2.1 billion in 2014. The real driver will be video, which Hallerman expects to increase from $1 billion in spending this year to $5.2 billion in 2014. Video’s annual rate of growth will be in the 34% to 45% range. Hallerman believes that video will become the primary form of brand advertising online. If you have breaking news to share please contact Steve Smith at ssmith@accessintel.com
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