|
We know the primary reason: the meltdown on Wall Street caused by the banking/brokerage collapse. The impact spread this fall like a prairie fire, and with many companies at or on the verge of bankruptcy (Circuit City and General Motors are now the most notable), it is no surprise that advertising is crumbling and magazine staff layoffs are abound. Only 2001's -7.54% differential is recently comparable, but that cause--the September 11 attacks--was not American-made. This is...and the economy turned a soft 2008 into a horrific one. Here is the monthlies' quarterly timeline followed by year-end data since 1997:
| 2005 |
2006 |
| 4th qtr. |
1st qtr. |
2nd qtr. |
3rd qtr. |
4th qtr. |
|
-0.39%
|
+0.09%
|
-1.70%
|
+3.47%
|
-0.51%
|
| 2007 |
| 1st qtr. |
2nd qtr. |
3rd qtr. |
4th qtr. |
|
|
+2.67%
|
+1.24%
|
+0.96%
|
+3.84%
|
|
| 2008 |
| 1st qtr. |
2nd qtr. |
3rd qtr. |
4th qtr. |
|
|
-4.61%
|
-6.14%
|
-11.52%
|
-13.89%
|
|
December's -17.76% differential is comparable with December 2001's -17.36%, when the first post-September 11 impact was felt. Here, the biggest impact was Condé Nast Media Group president (since August 2004) Richard Beckman's decision to suspend Movies Rock, which benefited 12 CN magazines last December. (Vogue's MR data were not included.) But the slew of non-CN magazines below -20% in December is frightening, with Real Simple's -38.69% the most symbolic. It was one-year old in 2001 and thrived, in part, because Americans yearned for home, family, and simplicity. Business is less "simple," now. Crunching the monthlies' year-end numbers: just 27 finished up in 2008 ad pages; 138 finished down. See some of the magazines that beat the odds in our top five this week.
| 1997 |
1998 |
1999 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
|
+5.39%
|
+2.98%
|
+3.20%
|
+4.36%
|
-7.54%
|
-0.67%
|
| 2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
|
+0.50%
|
+3.31%
|
+1.14%
|
+0.22%
|
+2.23%
|
-9.40%
|
MIN's Monthly Boxscores December 2008/2007)
|
|
DEC |
DEC |
% of |
YTD |
YTD |
% of |
|
2008 |
2007 |
Diff. |
2008 |
2007 |
Diff |
| ALLURE |
134.46
|
187.17
|
-28.16
|
1,655.51
|
1,734.97
|
-4.58
|
| ALL YOU |
97.28
|
84.22
|
15.51
|
1,033.57
|
1,079.32
|
-4.24
|
| AMERICAN BABY |
38.56
|
48.88
|
-21.11
|
599.43
|
672.81
|
-10.91
|
| ANTIQUES, THE MAGAZINE |
51.50
|
60.50
|
-14.88
|
843.50
|
925.00
|
-8.81
|
| ARCHITECTURAL DIGEST |
119.92
|
148.43
|
-19.21
|
1,576.36
|
1,637.02
|
-3.71
|
| ARTHUR FROMMER'S... |
42.00
|
60.34
|
-30.39
|
618.73
|
706.89
|
-12.47
|
| ART IN AMERICA |
91.00
|
102.00
|
-10.78
|
1,139.25
|
1,260.75
|
-9.64
|
| ARTNEWS |
86.42
|
112.42
|
-23.13
|
1,067.04
|
1,234.79
|
-13.59
|
| ATLANTIC MONTHLY, THE |
58.50
|
61.67
|
-5.14
|
530.22
|
638.13
|
-16.91
|
| AUTOMOBILE |
75.05
|
77.79
|
-3.52
|
797.40
|
899.92
|
-11.39
|
| BABY TALK |
39.76
|
44.07
|
-9.78
|
454.95
|
501.72
|
-9.32
|
| BEST LIFE |
78.61
|
87.70
|
-10.36
|
622.66
|
584.30
|
6.57
|
| BETTER HOMES & GARDENS |
124.64
|
173.04
|
-27.97
|
1,689.00
|
2,051.05
|
-17.65
|
| BICYCLING |
43.67
|
58.82
|
-25.76
|
753.48
|
782.68
|
-3.73
|
| BLACK ENTERPRISE |
65.07
|
86.49
|
-24.77
|
670.11
|
804.15
|
-16.67
|
| BLENDER |
46.79
|
102.97
|
-54.56
|
533.74
|
756.21
|
-29.42
|
| BOATING |
53.67
|
70.00
|
-23.33
|
824.29
|
1,098.97
|
-24.99
|
| BODY + SOUL (Nov/Dec) |
43.42
|
86.85
|
-50.01
|
643.73
|
607.23
|
6.01
|
| BON APP…TIT |
91.48
|
129.90
|
-29.58
|
868.03
|
1,041.53
|
-16.66
|
| BOYS' LIFE |
15.53
|
17.82
|
-12.85
|
122.97
|
127.35
|
-3.44
|
| CAR AND DRIVER |
87.51
|
109.33
|
-19.96
|
1,042.08
|
1,182.43
|
-11.87
|
| CAR CRAFT |
39.42
|
50.53
|
-21.99
|
571.59
|
680.42
|
-15.99
|
| CHICAGO (Home) |
52.09
|
57.34
|
-9.16
|
1,337.90
|
1,475.45
|
-9.32
|
| " (December) |
66.42
|
92.85
|
-28.47
|
1,404.32
|
1,568.30
|
-10.46
|
| CIRCLE TRACK |
51.70
|
61.61
|
-16.09
|
849.12
|
906.90
|
-6.37
|
| COASTAL LIVING |
41.37
|
56.72
|
-27.06
|
694.61
|
893.27
|
-22.24
|
| COND… NAST PORTFOLIO |
72.22
|
110.73
|
-34.78
|
668.68
|
457.33
|
46.21
|
| COND… NAST TRAVELER |
102.97
|
249.58
|
-58.74
|
1,639.65
|
1,842.26
|
-11.00
|
| COOKIE |
93.25
|
170.92
|
-45.44
|
779.16
|
703.75
|
10.72
|
| COOKING LIGHT |
86.54
|
121.08
|
-28.53
|
1,231.95
|
1,566.28
|
-21.35
|
| COSMOGIRL! (last issue) |
63.33
|
73.76
|
-14.14
|
630.13
|
738.78
|
-14.71
|
| COSMOPOLITAN |
124.49
|
127.41
|
-2.29
|
1,627.86
|
1,813.15
|
-10.22
|
| COTTAGE LIVING (NOV/DEC) |
92.42
|
59.91
|
54.26
|
514.26
|
542.06
|
-5.13
|
| COUNTRY HOME |
44.54
|
85.40
|
-47.85
|
631.10
|
840.64
|
-24.93
|
| COUNTRY LIVING |
79.53
|
105.22
|
-24.42
|
993.16
|
1,119.24
|
-11.26
|
| CRUISING WORLD |
88.05
|
78.08
|
12.77
|
1,136.86
|
1,206.98
|
-5.81
|
| CYCLE WORLD |
62.84
|
67.31
|
-6.64
|
806.37
|
982.85
|
-17.96
|
| DETAILS (includes Holiday) |
194.84
|
256.86
|
-24.15
|
1,283.75
|
1,372.68
|
-6.48
|
| DIRT RIDER |
135.82
|
152.76
|
-11.09
|
1,432.34
|
1,569.05
|
-8.71
|
| DISCOVER |
23.24
|
26.95
|
-13.77
|
265.86
|
296.61
|
-10.37
|
| DOMINO |
60.92
|
81.89
|
-25.61
|
692.13
|
724.93
|
-4.52
|
| DWELL |
95.65
|
130.81
|
-26.88
|
1,170.45
|
1,332.77
|
-12.18
|
| EBONY |
73.87
|
86.85
|
-14.95
|
969.01
|
1,135.78
|
-14.68
|
| ELLE |
246.52
|
245.02
|
0.61
|
2,631.99
|
2,510.40
|
4.84
|
| ELLE D…COR |
103.27
|
104.39
|
-1.07
|
1,261.10
|
1,284.28
|
-1.80
|
| ENTREPRENEUR |
79.45
|
103.54
|
-23.27
|
1,073.75
|
1,163.23
|
-7.69
|
| ESQUIRE |
100.87
|
137.86
|
-26.83
|
991.09
|
1,160.02
|
-14.56
|
| ESSENCE |
113.37
|
166.68
|
-31.98
|
1,289.41
|
1,471.55
|
-12.38
|
| EVERYDAY FOOD |
62.50
|
79.00
|
-20.89
|
559.50
|
710.29
|
-21.23
|
| EVERY DAY w/ RACHAEL... |
72.62
|
80.41
|
-9.69
|
740.77
|
717.36
|
3.26
|
| FAMILY CIRCLE |
132.59
|
129.64
|
2.28
|
1,561.29
|
1,808.52
|
-13.67
|
| FAMILY FUN |
75.17
|
80.37
|
-6.47
|
726.35
|
728.74
|
-0.33
|
| FAMILY HANDYMAN, THE |
45.09
|
45.27
|
-0.40
|
540.66
|
561.56
|
-3.72
|
| FAST COMPANY |
65.95
|
63.46
|
3.92
|
617.72
|
498.51
|
23.91
|
| FIELD & STREAM |
47.99
|
59.11
|
-18.81
|
594.80
|
619.26
|
-3.95
|
| FIREHOUSE |
75.33
|
78.00
|
-3.42
|
827.58
|
823.21
|
0.53
|
| FITNESS (Nov/Dec) |
79.41
|
56.56
|
40.40
|
674.70
|
871.87
|
-22.61
|
| FLEX |
221.08
|
201.25
|
9.85
|
2,520.53
|
2,269.35
|
11.07
|
| FLYING |
52.18
|
52.50
|
-0.61
|
659.58
|
690.09
|
-4.42
|
| FOOD & WINE |
126.36
|
160.45
|
-21.25
|
1,329.03
|
1,446.42
|
-8.12
|
| FORTUNE SMALL BUS. |
30.62
|
49.56
|
-38.22
|
468.66
|
477.46
|
-1.84
|
| FOUR WHEELER |
76.97
|
81.31
|
-5.34
|
797.76
|
931.21
|
-14.33
|
| 4-WHEEL/OFF-ROAD |
66.74
|
85.09
|
-21.57
|
816.06
|
1,037.66
|
-21.36
|
| GENTLEMEN'S QUARTERLY |
208.16
|
281.70
|
-26.11
|
1,654.18
|
1,868.93
|
-11.49
|
| GLAMOUR |
158.00
|
256.17
|
-38.32
|
1,829.73
|
2,089.56
|
-12.43
|
| GOLF DIGEST |
101.82
|
128.10
|
-20.52
|
1,386.64
|
1,531.09
|
-9.43
|
| GOLF MAGAZINE |
86.70
|
90.80
|
-4.52
|
1,188.50
|
1,197.41
|
-0.74
|
| GOOD HOUSEKEEPING |
138.81
|
142.52
|
-2.60
|
1,617.97
|
1,684.37
|
-3.94
|
| GOURMET |
114.41
|
152.74
|
-25.09
|
954.87
|
1,251.64
|
-23.71
|
| GUIDEPOSTS |
37.00
|
53.68
|
-31.07
|
501.68
|
597.82
|
-16.08
|
| GUNS & AMMO |
45.70
|
88.60
|
-48.42
|
622.95
|
758.60
|
-17.88
|
| HARPER'S BAZAAR |
208.14
|
212.90
|
-2.24
|
2,067.30
|
2,073.91
|
-0.32
|
| HARPER'S MAGAZINE |
36.00
|
26.32
|
36.78
|
283.46
|
263.78
|
7.46
|
| HEALTH |
79.46
|
88.66
|
-10.38
|
990.29
|
1,130.92
|
-12.44
|
| HOT ROD |
168.40
|
72.51
|
132.24
|
967.62
|
978.61
|
-1.12
|
| HOUSE BEAUTIFUL |
57.63
|
60.05
|
-4.03
|
778.31
|
725.13
|
7.33
|
| HUNTING |
27.50
|
32.90
|
-16.41
|
396.80
|
459.30
|
-13.61
|
| IN STYLE |
243.22
|
314.73
|
-22.72
|
2,743.52
|
3,222.17
|
-14.85
|
| INC. |
61.80
|
87.42
|
-29.31
|
818.77
|
824.57
|
-0.70
|
| INTERVIEW |
71.83
|
81.00
|
-11.32
|
656.49
|
901.08
|
-27.14
|
| KIPLINGER'S PERSONAL FINANCE |
40.13
|
39.16
|
2.48
|
425.02
|
497.31
|
-14.54
|
| LADIES' HOME JOURNAL |
95.31
|
135.15
|
-29.48
|
1,231.60
|
1,546.39
|
-20.36
|
| LATINA |
87.33
|
120.53
|
-27.55
|
786.13
|
913.00
|
-13.90
|
| LUCKY |
183.45
|
269.04
|
-31.81
|
1,691.58
|
1,907.02
|
-11.30
|
| MARIE CLAIRE |
103.44
|
135.36
|
-23.58
|
1,272.54
|
1,382.51
|
-7.95
|
| MARTHA STEWART LIVING |
132.96
|
179.62
|
-25.98
|
1,308.86
|
1,473.77
|
-11.19
|
| MAXIM |
102.81
|
136.68
|
-24.78
|
852.28
|
951.24
|
-10.40
|
| MEN'S FITNESS |
88.81
|
101.62
|
-12.61
|
897.80
|
913.37
|
-1.70
|
| MEN'S HEALTH |
124.73
|
150.46
|
-17.10
|
1,063.82
|
1,177.17
|
-9.63
|
| MEN'S JOURNAL |
154.39
|
207.79
|
-25.70
|
1,287.45
|
1,251.66
|
2.86
|
| MEN'S VOGUE |
91.85
|
137.62
|
-33.26
|
678.32
|
799.48
|
-15.15
|
| METROPOLITAN HOME |
94.63
|
92.63
|
2.16
|
1,008.07
|
1,042.79
|
-3.33
|
| MONEY |
76.58
|
84.19
|
-9.04
|
792.78
|
800.75
|
-1.00
|
| MORE |
70.94
|
121.31
|
-41.52
|
905.77
|
1,301.55
|
-30.41
|
| MOTOR BOATING - Nov/Dec |
38.00
|
60.08
|
-36.75
|
447.83
|
551.13
|
-18.74
|
| MOTORCYCLIST |
67.12
|
75.18
|
-10.72
|
987.53
|
979.94
|
0.77
|
| MOTOR TREND |
103.71
|
97.71
|
6.14
|
1,096.99
|
1,242.92
|
-11.74
|
| MUSCLE & FITNESS |
162.17
|
156.25
|
3.79
|
1,941.13
|
1,867.00
|
3.97
|
| NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC |
35.94
|
55.42
|
-35.15
|
438.19
|
469.24
|
-6.62
|
| NG ADVENTURE |
68.06
|
82.81
|
-17.81
|
529.94
|
534.48
|
-0.85
|
| NG KIDS |
24.35
|
15.53
|
56.79
|
116.83
|
148.23
|
-21.18
|
| NG TRAVELER |
102.16
|
114.89
|
-11.08
|
602.50
|
572.57
|
5.23
|
| NATURAL HEALTH |
43.22
|
49.13
|
-12.03
|
534.21
|
583.79
|
-8.49
|
| NATURAL HISTORY (Dec/Jan) |
23.38
|
29.21
|
-19.96
|
270.74
|
259.84
|
4.19
|
| NICKELODEON |
32.33
|
37.33
|
-13.39
|
232.20
|
314.00
|
-26.05
|
| O (OPRAH) |
172.91
|
228.54
|
-24.34
|
1,824.08
|
2,113.88
|
-13.71
|
| OUTDOOR LIFE |
46.78
|
46.66
|
0.26
|
453.85
|
480.31
|
-5.51
|
| OUTSIDE |
90.64
|
100.08
|
-9.43
|
899.35
|
1,012.77
|
-11.20
|
| PARENTING |
103.50
|
116.81
|
-11.39
|
987.38
|
1,059.90
|
-6.84
|
| PARENTS |
133.65
|
124.26
|
7.56
|
1,479.77
|
1,509.13
|
-1.95
|
| PENTHOUSE |
26.44
|
21.98
|
20.29
|
285.53
|
293.16
|
-2.60
|
| PEOPLE EN ESPA–OL |
94.83
|
107.47
|
-11.76
|
887.43
|
885.67
|
0.20
|
| PLAYBOY |
54.15
|
63.95
|
-15.32
|
462.98
|
491.18
|
-5.74
|
| POPULAR MECHANICS |
70.42
|
86.02
|
-18.14
|
850.00
|
828.42
|
2.60
|
| POPULAR PHOTOGRAPHY |
84.00
|
98.34
|
-14.58
|
978.70
|
972.34
|
0.65
|
| POPULAR SCIENCE |
68.56
|
83.90
|
-18.28
|
654.00
|
711.00
|
-8.02
|
| POWER & MOTORYACHT |
90.58
|
159.17
|
-43.09
|
2,080.86
|
2,710.51
|
-23.23
|
| PREVENTION |
80.06
|
92.54
|
-13.49
|
1,095.39
|
1,251.74
|
-12.49
|
| QUEST |
120.50
|
117.00
|
2.99
|
1,226.90
|
1,194.30
|
2.73
|
| READER'S DIGEST |
81.52
|
59.99
|
35.89
|
946.29
|
987.49
|
-4.17
|
| " " (Selecciones) |
24.07
|
30.37
|
-20.74
|
338.32
|
399.77
|
-15.37
|
| REAL SIMPLE |
134.00
|
218.56
|
-38.69
|
1,705.10
|
2,090.20
|
-18.42
|
| REDBOOK |
133.93
|
142.52
|
-6.03
|
1,503.67
|
1,650.53
|
-8.90
|
| RELISH |
17.50
|
25.80
|
-32.17
|
205.77
|
207.11
|
-0.65
|
| ROAD & TRACK |
92.54
|
111.90
|
-17.30
|
1,092.21
|
1,200.95
|
-9.05
|
| ROBB REPORT |
227.67
|
225.08
|
1.15
|
1,740.59
|
1,770.33
|
-1.68
|
| ROD & CUSTOM |
60.75
|
62.03
|
-2.06
|
774.84
|
846.00
|
-8.41
|
| RUNNER'S WORLD |
55.20
|
57.50
|
-4.00
|
742.52
|
749.63
|
-0.95
|
| RUNNING TIMES |
33.80
|
39.00
|
-13.33
|
383.95
|
366.41
|
4.79
|
| SALTWATER SPORTSMAN |
30.84
|
48.33
|
-36.19
|
615.51
|
844.26
|
-27.09
|
| SAVEURNEW |
31.33
|
49.83
|
-37.13
|
337.37
|
349.21
|
-3.39
|
| SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN |
52.53
|
36.20
|
45.11
|
443.90
|
508.92
|
-12.78
|
| SELF |
104.62
|
169.56
|
-38.30
|
1,314.20
|
1,365.79
|
-3.78
|
| SEVENTEEN |
73.35
|
81.53
|
-10.03
|
819.08
|
895.05
|
-8.49
|
| SHAPE |
89.75
|
99.44
|
-9.74
|
1,430.28
|
1,543.43
|
-7.33
|
| SKI |
107.95
|
121.94
|
-11.47
|
625.14
|
684.34
|
-8.65
|
| SKIING |
77.36
|
71.94
|
7.53
|
375.12
|
390.53
|
-3.95
|
| SMART MONEY |
43.51
|
80.51
|
-45.96
|
503.08
|
714.30
|
-29.57
|
| SMITHSONIAN |
37.81
|
50.26
|
-24.77
|
513.25
|
582.55
|
-11.90
|
| SOUND & VISION |
62.83
|
74.82
|
-16.03
|
495.68
|
575.03
|
-13.80
|
| SOUTHERN LIVING |
86.70
|
97.00
|
-10.62
|
1,198.05
|
1,412.22
|
-15.17
|
| SPECTRUM, IEEE |
48.84
|
46.42
|
5.21
|
366.03
|
385.00
|
-4.93
|
| SPIN |
58.40
|
74.33
|
-21.43
|
654.52
|
641.28
|
2.06
|
| SPORTS ILLUSTRATED KIDS |
45.31
|
56.20
|
-19.38
|
219.89
|
260.06
|
-15.45
|
| SPORT TRUCK |
55.32
|
68.14
|
-18.81
|
650.66
|
845.84
|
-23.08
|
| STYLE WATCH |
60.49
|
43.59
|
38.77
|
499.67
|
369.31
|
35.30
|
| SUCCESSFUL FARMING |
47.55
|
54.57
|
-12.86
|
600.39
|
566.69
|
5.95
|
| SUNSET |
50.14
|
52.49
|
-4.48
|
743.95
|
977.85
|
-23.92
|
| TEEN VOGUE |
105.41
|
149.40
|
-29.44
|
1,108.19
|
1,233.59
|
-10.17
|
| TENNIS - Nov/Dec |
40.80
|
42.90
|
-4.90
|
494.33
|
573.90
|
-13.86
|
| TEXAS MONTHLY |
217.50
|
224.15
|
-2.97
|
2,040.60
|
2,365.94
|
-13.75
|
| THIS OLD HOUSE |
37.69
|
49.84
|
-24.38
|
558.94
|
679.55
|
-17.75
|
| TOWN & COUNTRY |
175.40
|
201.78
|
-13.07
|
1,644.89
|
1,739.21
|
-5.42
|
| TRADITIONAL HOME |
50.79
|
52.01
|
-2.35
|
666.44
|
824.21
|
-19.14
|
| TRAILER LIFE |
30.27
|
39.19
|
-22.76
|
529.82
|
625.20
|
-15.26
|
| TRAVEL + LEISURE |
133.62
|
162.90
|
-17.97
|
1,481.19
|
1,587.05
|
-6.67
|
| VANITY FAIR |
222.75
|
321.59
|
-30.73
|
1,917.12
|
2,263.64
|
-15.31
|
| VIBE |
67.31
|
99.70
|
-32.49
|
779.46
|
963.03
|
-19.06
|
| VOGUE |
220.91
|
284.18
|
-22.26
|
2,893.96
|
3,201.66
|
-9.61
|
| W |
184.00
|
256.24
|
-28.19
|
1,933.95
|
2,216.25
|
-12.74
|
| WIRED |
131.76
|
202.16
|
-34.82
|
1,148.32
|
1,313.12
|
-12.55
|
| WOMAN'S DAY |
93.13
|
122.32
|
-23.86
|
1,562.52
|
1,688.62
|
-7.47
|
| WOMEN'S HEALTH |
54.50
|
60.16
|
-9.41
|
726.58
|
645.58
|
12.55
|
| WONDERTIME |
69.17
|
66.30
|
4.33
|
556.80
|
449.35
|
23.91
|
| WORKING MOTHER |
61.16
|
62.89
|
-2.75
|
582.87
|
562.04
|
3.71
|
| YACHTING |
117.28
|
151.99
|
-22.84
|
1,873.43
|
2,185.33
|
-14.27
|
| TOTALS |
14,372.90
|
17,476.22
|
-17.76
|
157,455.91
|
173,796.61
|
-9.40
|
| x = One extra issue (2008); x2 = Two extra issues (2008); x4 = Four extra issues; y = One extra issue (2007); N/D = November/December (2007); MR = Condé Nast Movie Rocks (2007); D '07 = December 2007; TWO = (two issues 2008/2007); L = Condé Nast Portfolio's first issue ran in September 2007, ytd data not included in cumulative sum. WI = Entrepreneur's ("Winter issue included in totals) (2008/2007)' CG = Hot Rod's Collector's Guild insert included (2008) |
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